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Shelbourne vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:00

Shelbourne

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dundalk

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.9%0-26.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.4%1-111.3%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 46.3% 2.16 -23.1%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 39.4% 33.6% 2.98 +17.4%

Over 2.5 60.9% 60.6% 1.65 +0.5%

Over 3.5 37.1% 37.7% 2.65 -1.7%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 43.2% 52.6% 1.90 -17.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 43.5% 2.30 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1✓ 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.4

Dundalk1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.92

DUNDALK · PPG 1.36

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.92) vs Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -23.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

Dundalk (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Dundalk 39%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shelbourne and 1.5 for Dundalk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.36 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Shelbourne vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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