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Derry City vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Derry City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Waterford

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.5%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.4%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 69.9% 1.43 -23.2%

Draw 22.6% 23.1% 4.33 -1.3%

Away win 23.6% 14.1% 7.10 +40.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 59.9% 1.67 +1.7%

Over 3.5 37.0% 37.7% 2.65 -1.9%

BTTS 55.6% 56.5% 1.77 -1.6%

Home O1.5 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Away O1.5 31.3% 25.0% 4.00 +25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.9

Waterford1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.67

WATERFORD · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -23.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.3%

Waterford (A) 23.6%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +40.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Waterford 24%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Derry City and 1.0 for Waterford (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.45 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.5%. This match finished 2-4.

Derry City vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions