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Longford Town vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:30

Longford Town

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wexford

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+41.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.8%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.4%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 39.2% 2.55 +41.3%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 20.2% 39.2% 2.55 -29.1%

Over 2.5 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Over 3.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 44.4% 2.25 +20.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 44.4% 2.25 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.7

Wexford0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.82

WEXFORD · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +41.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Wexford (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Wexford 20%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Longford Town and 0.8 for Wexford (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.64 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.5%.

Longford Town vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions