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UCD vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 24 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:45

UCD

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWD

5 – 2

FULL TIME

Cork City

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-112.3%0-27.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-17.2%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

Draw 28.8% 27.8% 3.60 +2.2%

Away win 34.3% 48.1% 2.08 -28.7%

Over 2.5 46.8% 55.6% 1.80 -15.8%

Over 3.5 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

BTTS 49.8% 61.7% 1.62 -19.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 37.7% 2.65 -7.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 51.3% 1.95 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.8%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCD1.1

Cork City1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCD · PPG 2.00

CORK CITY · PPG 2.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UCD (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.8%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.2%

Cork City (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCD face Cork City in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCD a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Cork City 34%, so UCD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for UCD and 1.2 for Cork City (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCD are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.18 for Cork City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 5-2.

UCD vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions