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Athlone Town vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Finn Harps

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-18.7%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.3%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.1%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 1.69 -8.6%

Draw 25.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Away win 20.1% 5.00 +0.3%

Over 2.5 49.8% 1.93 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 3.30 -3.4%

BTTS 48.1% 1.80 -13.4%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 1.80 -21.7%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.70 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -24.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.4

Finn Harps0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 1.60

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -8.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

Finn Harps (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Finn Harps 20%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Athlone Town and 0.8 for Finn Harps (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Athlone Town vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions