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Finn Harps vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wexford

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-112.3%0-27.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.5%2-17.0%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 22.5% 4.45 +38.8%

Draw 26.8% 27.0% 3.70 -0.5%

Away win 42.0% 57.5% 1.74 -26.9%

Over 2.5 49.7% 57.8% 1.73 -14.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

BTTS 52.8% 61.7% 1.62 -14.5%

Home O1.5 35.2% 30.8% 3.25 +14.4%

Away O1.5 39.8% 57.8% 1.73 -31.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -24.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.8%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.1

Wexford1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.30

WEXFORD · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 31.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +38.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.5%

Wexford (A) 42.0%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Wexford 42%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Finn Harps and 1.3 for Wexford (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.70 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.8%.

Finn Harps vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions