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Treaty Utd vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Treaty Utd

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kerry

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.9%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.7%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 39.7% 2.52 -15.3%

Draw 30.0% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

Away win 36.4% 36.5% 2.74 -0.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% 47.6% 2.10 -9.5%

Over 3.5 23.2% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

BTTS 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Home O1.5 35.2% 40.0% 2.50 -12.0%

Away O1.5 31.5% 37.7% 2.65 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -24.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–0 13.8%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty Utd1.0

Kerry1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UTD · PPG 1.20

KERRY · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Treaty Utd (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.5%

Kerry (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty Utd face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty Utd a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Kerry 36%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Treaty Utd and 1.0 for Kerry (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty Utd are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Kerry.

Treaty Utd vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions