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Cork City vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.70 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-19.2%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 1.62 -10.1%

Draw 21.4% 4.00 -8.6%

Away win 23.1% 5.00 +9.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.70 +9.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.70 +7.5%

BTTS 55.8% 1.67 -6.8%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.62 -1.8%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.30 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -24.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.8%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.8%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.1

Bray Wanderers0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.70

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.70) vs P(Home)=55.5%

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.6%

Bray Wanderers (A) 23.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Bray Wanderers 23%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Cork City and 0.8 for Bray Wanderers (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.70 points per game versus 0.90 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Cork City vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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