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Kerry vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 24 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Finn Harps

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-15.6%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-110.2%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-13.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 58.5% 1.71 +0.7%

Draw 22.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.4%

Away win 18.8% 21.3% 4.70 -7.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 53.5% 56.5% 1.77 -5.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.8

Finn Harps0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.73

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV +0.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.4%

Finn Harps (A) 18.8%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Finn Harps 19%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kerry and 0.7 for Finn Harps (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.55 for Finn Harps. This match finished 2-1.

Kerry vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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