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Kerry vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Finn Harps

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-15.7%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-110.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 58.5% 1.71 +0.5%

Draw 22.3% 27.4% 3.65 -11.2%

Away win 18.9% 21.3% 4.70 -6.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 52.6% 1.90 -4.4%

Over 3.5 29.1% 30.8% 3.25 -3.3%

BTTS 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.2% 3.55 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.8

Finn Harps0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.73

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV +0.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.2%

Finn Harps (A) 18.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Finn Harps 19%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kerry and 0.7 for Finn Harps (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.55 for Finn Harps.

Kerry vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions