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Treaty United vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 24 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:45

Treaty United

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Athlone Town

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-19.7%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.5%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.1%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 36.8% 2.72 +33.6%

Draw 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Away win 23.6% 40.0% 2.50 -24.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Over 3.5 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 42.6% 2.35 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty United1.3

Athlone Town0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UNITED · PPG 1.36

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Treaty United (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +33.6%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

Athlone Town (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty United face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty United a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Athlone Town 24%, so Treaty United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Treaty United and 0.7 for Athlone Town (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty United are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.64 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Treaty United vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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