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Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Defensor Sporting

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-17.2%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.0%1-110.3%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-17.3%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.2%3-13.5%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 56.2% 1.78 -4.1%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 20.1% 21.5% 4.65 -3.9%

Over 2.5 43.6% 40.8% 2.45 +6.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

BTTS 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

Home O1.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Away O1.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.7%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.0%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 15.0%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor Sporting1.4

Cerro0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 1.67

CERRO · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensor Sporting (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Cerro (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor Sporting face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor Sporting a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Cerro 20%, so Defensor Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Defensor Sporting and 0.5 for Cerro (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor Sporting are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.40 for Cerro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.8%.

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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