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Deportivo Maldonado vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juventud

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.5%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-18.2%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.6%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-17.8%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 17.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maldonado2.4

Juventud0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 2.50

JUVENTUD · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maldonado (H) 61.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Juventud (A) 17.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maldonado face Juventud in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maldonado a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Juventud 18%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.9 for Juventud (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maldonado are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.90 for Juventud.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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