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Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 6 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Defensor Sporting

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-114.3%0-25.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-16.0%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 39.7% 2.52 -3.5%

Draw 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Away win 28.8% 36.8% 2.72 -13.0%

Over 2.5 37.3% 42.6% 2.35 -12.3%

Over 3.5 17.8% 22.2% 4.50 -11.9%

BTTS 46.7% 51.8% 1.93 -9.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 35.7% 2.80 -6.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 33.9% 2.95 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.7%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor Sporting0.9

Liverpool Montevideo0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 1.67

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 1.70 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensor Sporting (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -3.5%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Liverpool Montevideo (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor Sporting face Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor Sporting a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Liverpool Montevideo 29%, so Defensor Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Defensor Sporting and 0.8 for Liverpool Montevideo (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor Sporting are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Liverpool Montevideo.

Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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