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Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 15:00

Central Espanol

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.2%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.7%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.8%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 33.6% 2.98 +37.7%

Draw 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Away win 27.1% 42.4% 2.36 -21.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 42.6% 2.35 +17.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.3% 51.8% 1.93 +0.9%

Home O1.5 40.3% 31.3% 3.20 +29.0%

Away O1.5 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Espanol1.4

Liverpool Montevideo1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.89

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Espanol (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +37.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Liverpool Montevideo (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Espanol face Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Espanol a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 27%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Central Espanol and 1.1 for Liverpool Montevideo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Espanol are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.50 for Liverpool Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +33.2%.

Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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