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Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 6 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Central Espanol

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-19.3%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.8%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 39.1% 2.56 +25.9%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 23.6% 36.8% 2.72 -21.5%

Over 2.5 46.8% 42.6% 2.35 +10.0%

Over 3.5 27.0% 22.2% 4.50 +12.9%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 38.7% 35.7% 2.80 +8.4%

Away O1.5 26.8% 33.9% 2.95 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Espanol1.4

Cerro Largo0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.89

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Espanol (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +25.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Cerro Largo (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Espanol face Cerro Largo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Espanol a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Cerro Largo 24%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Central Espanol and 0.9 for Cerro Largo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Espanol are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.10 for Cerro Largo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.5%.

Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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