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Cerro Largo vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 15 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 23:30

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Penarol

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-115.7%0-28.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.6%1-113.2%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-04.9%2-15.6%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 19.6% 5.10 +29.7%

Draw 32.1% 28.6% 3.50 +12.3%

Away win 38.6% 60.6% 1.65 -36.3%

Over 2.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

Over 3.5 14.0% 27.0% 3.70 -28.9%

BTTS 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Largo0.8

Penarol1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.17

PENAROL · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Largo (H) 29.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +29.7%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +12.3%

Penarol (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Largo face Penarol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Largo a 29% chance, the draw 32% and Penarol 39%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Cerro Largo and 1.1 for Penarol (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Largo are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Penarol. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Cerro Largo vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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