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Club Nacional vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:30

Club Nacional

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Progreso

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.2%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.7%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.4%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Nacional1.7

Progreso0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB NACIONAL · PPG 1.60

PROGRESO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Nacional (H) 55.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Progreso (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Nacional face Progreso in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Nacional a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Progreso 20%, so Club Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Club Nacional and 0.7 for Progreso (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Nacional are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Progreso.

Club Nacional vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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