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Atletico Torque vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 6 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Danubio

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.0%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.9%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.7%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 29.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Torque2.0

Danubio1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.44

DANUBIO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Torque (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Danubio (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Torque face Danubio in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Torque a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Danubio 21%, so Atletico Torque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico Torque and 1.0 for Danubio (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Torque are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.90 for Danubio.

Atletico Torque vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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