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Defensor S. vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Defensor S.

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Juventud

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-19.0%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-111.5%1-23.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 45.9% 2.18 +8.3%

Draw 28.3% 31.3% 3.20 -5.7%

Away win 22.0% 31.7% 3.15 -18.4%

Over 2.5 35.1% 46.5% 2.15 -24.5%

Over 3.5 12.0% 25.0% 4.00 -31.2%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.9%

#2 0–0 15.4%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor S.1.3

Juventud0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR S. · PPG 2.33

JUVENTUD · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Defensor S. (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +8.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.7%

Juventud (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor S. face Juventud in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor S. a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Juventud 22%, so Defensor S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Defensor S. and 0.6 for Juventud (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor S. are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Juventud. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Defensor S. vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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