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Nacional vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 22:30

Nacional

PPG 1.17 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cerro

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.0%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-110.4%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.6%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-15.3%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.8

Cerro0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.17

CERRO · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cerro (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Cerro 21%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nacional and 0.7 for Cerro (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.17 for Cerro. This match finished 4-0.

Nacional vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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