Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / D. Maldonado vs Boston River

D. Maldonado vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 15 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 20:00

D. Maldonado

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Boston River

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.1%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-110.8%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 54.9% 1.82 -4.5%

Draw 25.5% 30.3% 3.30 -9.5%

Away win 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Over 2.5 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Over 3.5 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

BTTS 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1✓ 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Maldonado1.8

Boston River0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MALDONADO · PPG 2.50

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

D. Maldonado (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -4.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.5%

Boston River (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Maldonado face Boston River in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Maldonado a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Boston River 22%, so D. Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for D. Maldonado and 0.8 for Boston River (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Maldonado are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Boston River. This match finished 2-1.

D. Maldonado vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions