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Sport Huancayo vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-18.2%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.0%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.3%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 60.2% 1.66 -11.5%

Draw 26.6% 27.4% 3.65 -1.8%

Away win 20.2% 19.2% 5.20 +3.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Over 3.5 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -3.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo1.5

Atletico Grau0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.75

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -11.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.8%

Atletico Grau (A) 20.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Grau 20%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sport Huancayo and 0.7 for Atletico Grau (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.56 for Atletico Grau. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Sport Huancayo vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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