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Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:00

Alianza Atletico

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.9%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-112.0%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.7%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 20.3% 23.3% 4.30 -7.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 46.3% 52.4% 1.91 -11.6%

Away O1.5 20.2% 28.6% 3.50 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Atletico1.5

Club Deportivo Los Chankas0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 1.62

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Atletico (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Atletico face Club Deportivo Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Atletico a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Club Deportivo Los Chankas 20%, so Alianza Atletico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alianza Atletico and 0.9 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Atletico are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions