Today / Peru - Primera División / Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:00

Alianza Atletico

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.1%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.2%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Draw 25.1% 29.0% 3.45 -8.0%

Away win 20.3% 22.7% 4.40 -6.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 46.3% 54.6% 1.83 -15.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Atletico1.5

Club Deportivo Los Chankas0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 1.62

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Atletico (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.0%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Atletico face Club Deportivo Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Atletico a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Club Deportivo Los Chankas 20%, so Alianza Atletico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alianza Atletico and 0.8 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Atletico are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.8%.

Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions