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Universitario vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 01:30

Universitario

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cusco

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.1%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-18.8%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.6%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-15.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 73.0% 1.37 -20.9%

Draw 22.2% 23.0% 4.35 -2.1%

Away win 20.1% 11.2% 8.90 +47.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

BTTS 50.0% 51.8% 1.93 -3.5%

Home O1.5 61.8% 67.6% 1.48 -8.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.0%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario2.1

Cusco0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 2.33

CUSCO · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitario (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -20.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -2.1%

Cusco (A) 20.1%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV +47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario face Cusco in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Cusco 20%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Universitario and 0.7 for Cusco (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.11 for Cusco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Universitario vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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