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Juan Pablo II College vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 20:15

Juan Pablo II College

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cienciano

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.8%0-24.0%0-32.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.4%1-17.2%1-27.7%1-35.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.3%3-24.6%3-33.3%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.2%4+-23.4%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 39.7% 2.52 -8.5%

Draw 21.7% 27.4% 3.65 -12.5%

Away win 42.0% 40.0% 2.50 +5.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 63.7% 1.57 +5.2%

Over 3.5 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

BTTS 69.1% 69.0% 1.45 +0.2%

Home O1.5 55.7% 51.3% 1.95 +8.6%

Away O1.5 54.5% 51.3% 1.95 +6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.1%

A 42% / xG 1.9-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II College1.9

Cienciano2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE · PPG 1.00

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II College (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -8.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.5%

Cienciano (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II College face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II College a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Cienciano 42%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Juan Pablo II College and 2.1 for Cienciano (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II College are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.38 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%.

Juan Pablo II College vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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