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Sertãozinho U20 vs América-SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Sertãozinho U20

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

América-SP U20

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-16.9%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.8%1-110.4%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-17.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-13.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 19.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 2–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 13.2%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sertãozinho U201.5

América-SP U200.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SERTÃOZINHO U20 · PPG 1.33

AMÉRICA-SP U20 · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sertãozinho U20 (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

América-SP U20 (A) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sertãozinho U20 face América-SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sertãozinho U20 a 56% chance, the draw 25% and América-SP U20 19%, so Sertãozinho U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sertãozinho U20 and 0.5 for América-SP U20 (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sertãozinho U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.00 for América-SP U20.

Sertãozinho U20 vs América-SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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