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Guarani U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Guarani U20

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Tanabi SP U20

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 74% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.3%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.8%1-14.2%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.0%2-16.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.0%4+-113.7%4+-24.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 84.7% 1.18 -13.5%

Draw 17.3% 16.7% 6.00 +2.3%

Away win 9.5% 8.3% 12.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 65.4% 1.53 +2.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 44.4% 2.25 +0.1%

BTTS 48.5% 53.5% 1.87 -9.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 72.5% 1.38 +6.7%

Away O1.5 19.1% 20.2% 4.95 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 73% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.9%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 4–0 9.7%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani U203.3

Tanabi SP U200.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI U20 · PPG 3.00

TANABI SP U20 · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

74%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.63 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guarani U20 (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +2.3%

Tanabi SP U20 (A) 9.5%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani U20 face Tanabi SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani U20 a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Tanabi SP U20 10%, so Guarani U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Guarani U20 and 0.6 for Tanabi SP U20 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani U20 are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Tanabi SP U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Guarani U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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