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Mauá U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Mauá U20

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Flamengo SP U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 44% chance

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+34.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.7%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.7%1-112.0%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.3%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.8%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 40.0% 2.50 +34.5%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 21.5% 40.0% 2.50 -27.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.7% 2.97 -8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 61.0% 1.64 -14.2%

Home O1.5 46.4% 43.5% 2.30 +6.7%

Away O1.5 23.6% 43.9% 2.28 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mauá U201.6

Flamengo SP U200.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAUÁ U20 · PPG 1.67

FLAMENGO SP U20 · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

44%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mauá U20 (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +34.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

Flamengo SP U20 (A) 21.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mauá U20 face Flamengo SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mauá U20 a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Flamengo SP U20 22%, so Mauá U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mauá U20 and 0.9 for Flamengo SP U20 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mauá U20 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Flamengo SP U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Mauá U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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