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Ponte Preta U20 vs União Suzano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Ponte Preta U20

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

União Suzano U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.4%1-18.8%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.3%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 73.5% 1.36 -20.3%

Draw 21.7% 23.1% 4.33 -3.6%

Away win 19.7% 15.4% 6.50 +16.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Over 3.5 40.0% 39.1% 2.56 +2.4%

BTTS 55.4% 58.1% 1.72 -4.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 64.1% 1.56 -3.6%

Away O1.5 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 10.5%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta U202.2

União Suzano U200.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA U20 · PPG 1.33

UNIÃO SUZANO U20 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta U20 (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -20.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.6%

União Suzano U20 (A) 19.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta U20 face União Suzano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta U20 a 59% chance, the draw 22% and União Suzano U20 20%, so Ponte Preta U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ponte Preta U20 and 0.9 for União Suzano U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for União Suzano U20. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Ponte Preta U20 vs União Suzano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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