Today / Brazil - Paulista - U20 / Aguai U20 vs Bandeirante U20

Aguai U20 vs Bandeirante U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Aguai U20

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bandeirante U20

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+17.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-18.8%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-112.0%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.3%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 20.0% 34.7% 2.88 -25.4%

Over 2.5 44.0% 48.8% 2.05 -9.8%

Over 3.5 23.8% 30.5% 3.28 -13.2%

BTTS 48.5% 58.5% 1.71 -17.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 43.3% 2.31 -11.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 38.3% 2.61 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aguai U201.4

Bandeirante U200.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUAI U20 · PPG 1.33

BANDEIRANTE U20 · PPG 0.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aguai U20 (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Bandeirante U20 (A) 20.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aguai U20 face Bandeirante U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aguai U20 a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Bandeirante U20 20%, so Aguai U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aguai U20 and 0.7 for Bandeirante U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aguai U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Bandeirante U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Aguai U20 vs Bandeirante U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Paulista - U20 Predictions