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Gremio Prudente U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Gremio Prudente U20

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

XV de Jaú U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.4%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.6%1-18.1%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.6%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 66.7% 1.50 -14.2%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 20.4% 21.1% 4.75 -1.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 57.1% 1.75 +11.5%

Over 3.5 41.3% 35.3% 2.83 +16.9%

BTTS 57.1% 57.1% 1.75 -0.1%

Home O1.5 61.8% 60.6% 1.65 +2.0%

Away O1.5 28.1% 27.3% 3.66 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.1%

H 57% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1✓ 8.1%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio Prudente U202.4

XV de Jaú U200.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO PRUDENTE U20 · PPG 1.00

XV DE JAÚ U20 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gremio Prudente U20 (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -14.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

XV de Jaú U20 (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio Prudente U20 face XV de Jaú U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio Prudente U20 a 57% chance, the draw 22% and XV de Jaú U20 20%, so Gremio Prudente U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Gremio Prudente U20 and 0.9 for XV de Jaú U20 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio Prudente U20 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for XV de Jaú U20. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Gremio Prudente U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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