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Água Santa U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Água Santa U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ituano U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+24.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.0%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.6%1-17.4%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.8%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-18.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 44.4% 2.25 +40.8%

Draw 19.8% 30.3% 3.30 -20.8%

Away win 17.6% 37.0% 2.70 -31.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 51.3% 1.95 +24.2%

Over 3.5 40.3% 34.7% 2.88 +16.1%

BTTS 55.4% 62.1% 1.61 -10.8%

Home O1.5 63.3% 45.0% 2.22 +40.5%

Away O1.5 21.5% 43.5% 2.30 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Água Santa U202.5

Ituano U200.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUA SANTA U20 · PPG 2.00

ITUANO U20 · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

55%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Água Santa U20 (H) 62.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +40.8%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.8%

Ituano U20 (A) 17.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Água Santa U20 face Ituano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Água Santa U20 a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Ituano U20 18%, so Água Santa U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Água Santa U20 and 0.9 for Ituano U20 (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Água Santa U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Ituano U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Água Santa U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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