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Ibrachina U20 vs Velo Clube U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Ibrachina U20

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWD

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Velo Clube U20

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDL

// Model verdict

Home 82% chance

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-10.6%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.1%1-12.3%1-20.4%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.8%2-14.1%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.4%3-14.9%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-035.5%4+-111.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Draw 14.8% 16.0% 6.25 -4.5%

Away win 6.9% 11.1% 9.00 -22.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 66.7% 1.50 +0.5%

Over 3.5 46.0% 45.7% 2.19 +0.7%

BTTS 46.4% 54.9% 1.82 -15.6%

Home O1.5 77.3% 74.1% 1.35 +4.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 21.3% 4.70 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob46.4%

H 78% / xG 3.6-0.3 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 15.4%

#2 4–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 5–0✓ 10.1%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ibrachina U203.6

Velo Clube U200.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IBRACHINA U20 · PPG 3.00

VELO CLUBE U20 · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.29 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ibrachina U20 (H) 78.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -6.0%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -4.5%

Velo Clube U20 (A) 6.9%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ibrachina U20 face Velo Clube U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ibrachina U20 a 78% chance, the draw 15% and Velo Clube U20 7%, so Ibrachina U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Ibrachina U20 and 0.3 for Velo Clube U20 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ibrachina U20 are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Velo Clube U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 5-0.

Ibrachina U20 vs Velo Clube U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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