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CA Estudiantes vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ciudad de Bolívar

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-113.1%0-24.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.2%2-15.7%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 59.5% 1.68 -23.9%

Draw 31.4% 33.3% 3.00 -5.8%

Away win 23.3% 17.2% 5.80 +21.1%

Over 2.5 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Over 3.5 17.8% 14.3% 7.00 +14.8%

BTTS 46.4% 37.0% 2.70 +25.3%

Home O1.5 33.4% 43.5% 2.30 -23.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 11.1% 9.00 +43.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 45% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.1%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes0.9

Ciudad de Bolívar0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.60

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 1.56 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -23.9%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.8%

Ciudad de Bolívar (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face Ciudad de Bolívar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Ciudad de Bolívar 23%, so CA Estudiantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for CA Estudiantes and 0.6 for Ciudad de Bolívar (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.70 for Ciudad de Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +43.1%.

CA Estudiantes vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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