Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / San Martin Tucuman vs Temperley

San Martin Tucuman vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 22:00

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Temperley

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.5%0-111.2%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.3%1-111.6%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.0%2-16.1%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.8%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Draw 32.4% 35.7% 2.80 -9.3%

Away win 20.8% 22.7% 4.40 -5.1%

Over 2.5 35.4% 29.4% 3.40 +20.4%

Over 3.5 13.1% 14.3% 7.00 -5.0%

BTTS 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

Home O1.5 35.0% 36.4% 2.75 -3.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 15.4% 6.50 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 47% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.5%

#2 1–0 21.3%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Tucuman1.0

Temperley0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.70

TEMPERLEY · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 1.59 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Tucuman (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -8.7%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.3%

Temperley (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Tucuman face Temperley in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Tucuman a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Temperley 21%, so San Martin Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.5 for Temperley (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Tucuman are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.18 for Temperley. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.4%.

San Martin Tucuman vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions