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D. de Belgrano vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 18:00

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Los Andes

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.5%0-122.3%0-28.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.5%1-110.5%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.2%2-12.5%2-21.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 47.6% 2.10 -28.7%

Draw 37.8% 30.8% 3.25 +22.9%

Away win 37.4% 31.3% 3.20 +19.7%

Over 2.5 33.7% 32.3% 3.10 +4.5%

Over 3.5 13.1% 15.4% 6.50 -8.9%

BTTS 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

Home O1.5 20.0% 33.3% 3.00 -24.0%

Away O1.5 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.3%

A 37% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.5%

#2 0–1 22.3%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. de Belgrano0.5

Los Andes0.8

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.20

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

D. de Belgrano (H) 24.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.7%

Draw 37.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +22.9%

Los Andes (A) 37.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. de Belgrano face Los Andes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. de Belgrano a 25% chance, the draw 38% and Los Andes 37%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for D. de Belgrano and 0.8 for Los Andes (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. de Belgrano are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Los Andes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.9%.

D. de Belgrano vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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