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Patronato vs A. Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 23:00

Patronato

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Atlanta

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-116.5%0-27.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.9%1-113.1%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.9%2-15.2%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.6%3-11.4%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

Draw 31.8% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

Away win 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

Over 2.5 36.5% 32.3% 3.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 18.1% 15.4% 6.50 +10.6%

BTTS 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 26.7% 3.75 +24.9%

Away O1.5 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 16.5%

#4 1–0 14.9%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.8

A. Atlanta0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.30

A. ATLANTA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.30), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.4%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.1%

A. Atlanta (A) 32.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face A. Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 36% chance, the draw 32% and A. Atlanta 32%, so Patronato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Patronato and 0.9 for A. Atlanta (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.44 for A. Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.9%.

Patronato vs A. Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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