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Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 23:00

Quilmes

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.9%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.6%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 41.7% 2.40 +20.5%

Over 3.5 29.0% 22.2% 4.50 +18.3%

BTTS 52.4% 48.8% 2.05 +7.4%

Home O1.5 45.9% 40.0% 2.50 +14.8%

Away O1.5 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.4

Gimnasia Jujuy0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 2.00

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Gimnasia Jujuy 27%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Quilmes and 0.9 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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