Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Colegiales vs Midland

Colegiales vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 23:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Midland

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-111.9%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Draw 29.9% 36.4% 2.75 -10.7%

Away win 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Over 2.5 39.6% 33.9% 2.95 +16.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% 14.3% 7.00 +22.3%

BTTS 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

Home O1.5 35.6% 35.7% 2.80 -0.3%

Away O1.5 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales1.1

Midland0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.10

MIDLAND · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs P(Home)=44.0%

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.7%

Midland (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Midland 26%, so Colegiales are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Colegiales and 0.8 for Midland (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Midland. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.3%.

Colegiales vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions