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SM San Juan vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 18:00

SM San Juan

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.1%0-115.7%0-25.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.7%1-112.5%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.1%2-15.0%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.3%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 54.1% 1.85 -26.9%

Draw 33.2% 35.7% 2.80 -7.0%

Away win 27.4% 20.8% 4.80 +18.9%

Over 2.5 33.7% 29.4% 3.40 +14.6%

Over 3.5 13.1% 14.3% 7.00 -5.0%

BTTS 46.3% 38.5% 2.60 +20.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 38.2% 2.62 -12.8%

Away O1.5 21.6% 14.3% 7.00 +30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.3%

H 40% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.1%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 15.7%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM San Juan0.8

Tristan Suarez0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 1.67

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

SM San Juan (H) 39.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -26.9%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -7.0%

Tristan Suarez (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SM San Juan face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM San Juan a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Tristan Suarez 27%, so SM San Juan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for SM San Juan and 0.7 for Tristan Suarez (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM San Juan are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.7%.

SM San Juan vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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