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Chacarita J. vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 18:00

Chacarita J.

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

CA Guemes

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.9%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-110.6%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.3%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.8%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 52.4% 1.91 +8.3%

Draw 23.4% 36.4% 2.75 -21.4%

Away win 19.9% 21.7% 4.60 -5.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 32.3% 3.10 +55.6%

Over 3.5 29.0% 15.4% 6.50 +53.1%

BTTS 48.5% 40.8% 2.45 +18.8%

Home O1.5 53.1% 38.2% 2.62 +39.1%

Away O1.5 21.9% 18.2% 5.50 +12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita J.1.8

CA Guemes0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA J. · PPG 1.70

CA GUEMES · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.70) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita J. (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +8.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.4%

CA Guemes (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita J. face CA Guemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita J. a 57% chance, the draw 23% and CA Guemes 20%, so Chacarita J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chacarita J. and 0.8 for CA Guemes (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita J. are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.56 for CA Guemes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.9%.

Chacarita J. vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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