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Tristan Suarez vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-16.9%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.1%1-19.8%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.6%2-16.9%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.4%3-13.3%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 52.4% 1.91 +2.9%

Draw 26.4% 35.1% 2.85 -14.9%

Away win 19.7% 22.7% 4.40 -8.0%

Over 2.5 39.3% 29.4% 3.40 +33.6%

Over 3.5 19.3% 14.3% 7.00 +21.1%

BTTS 46.4% 40.8% 2.45 +13.7%

Home O1.5 46.3% 36.4% 2.75 +27.3%

Away O1.5 13.8% 16.7% 6.00 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.4%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.1%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 2–0 15.6%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez1.4

Chacarita Juniors0.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.70

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -14.9%

Chacarita Juniors (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Chacarita Juniors in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Chacarita Juniors 20%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tristan Suarez and 0.4 for Chacarita Juniors (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.60 for Chacarita Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%.

Tristan Suarez vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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