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Atletico DE Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 19:00

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-110.3%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-112.1%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Draw 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

Away win 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Over 2.5 39.3% 29.4% 3.40 +33.6%

Over 3.5 19.7% 14.3% 7.00 +22.7%

BTTS 47.2% 40.8% 2.45 +15.6%

Home O1.5 35.0% 29.4% 3.40 +19.0%

Away O1.5 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 19.4%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico DE Rafaela1.2

Nueva Chicago0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 2.00

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico DE Rafaela (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.7%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.5%

Nueva Chicago (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico DE Rafaela face Nueva Chicago in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico DE Rafaela a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Nueva Chicago 22%, so Atletico DE Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.6 for Nueva Chicago (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico DE Rafaela are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.11 for Nueva Chicago. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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