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Acassuso vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 18:00

Acassuso

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Telmo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-112.7%0-24.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-16.6%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 42.6% 2.35 -2.0%

Draw 31.0% 38.2% 2.62 -18.8%

Away win 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

Over 2.5 39.6% 32.3% 3.10 +22.8%

Over 3.5 22.7% 15.4% 6.50 +28.5%

BTTS 48.5% 42.0% 2.38 +15.4%

Home O1.5 35.6% 33.3% 3.00 +6.8%

Away O1.5 21.6% 23.1% 4.33 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso1.0

San Telmo0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.44

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -2.0%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -18.8%

San Telmo (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 42% chance, the draw 31% and San Telmo 27%, so Acassuso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Acassuso and 0.7 for San Telmo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.67 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.5%.

Acassuso vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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