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Neptūną Klaipėda vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:00

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.3%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.3%1-16.2%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-18.6%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.0%4+-110.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 75.2% 1.33 -4.8%

Draw 18.3% 20.4% 4.90 -6.2%

Away win 10.0% 16.0% 6.25 -22.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 77.5% 1.29 -17.8%

Over 3.5 42.0% 56.8% 1.76 -26.1%

BTTS 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 72% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neptūną Klaipėda2.8

FA Šiauliai II0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 1.88

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 0.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Neptūną Klaipėda (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -4.8%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -6.2%

FA Šiauliai II (A) 10.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptūną Klaipėda face FA Šiauliai II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptūną Klaipėda a 72% chance, the draw 18% and FA Šiauliai II 10%, so Neptūną Klaipėda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Neptūną Klaipėda and 0.8 for FA Šiauliai II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptūną Klaipėda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.12 for FA Šiauliai II.

Neptūną Klaipėda vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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