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Jonava vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Jonava

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Garliava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.4%0-26.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.2%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-17.8%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 30.8% 3.25 +34.5%

Draw 29.8% 29.4% 3.40 +0.8%

Away win 28.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Over 2.5 46.8% 61.7% 1.62 -24.2%

Over 3.5 26.4% 40.0% 2.50 -20.4%

BTTS 48.5% 64.5% 1.55 -24.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava1.2

Garliava1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 1.43

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 41.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +34.5%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +0.8%

Garliava (A) 28.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face Garliava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Garliava 29%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jonava and 1.1 for Garliava (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Garliava.

Jonava vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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