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Tauras vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 14:00

Tauras

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Home 73% chance

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-12.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.0%1-15.7%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.3%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.8%3-16.1%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.9%4+-17.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 73.5% 1.36 -2.6%

Draw 18.3% 20.0% 5.00 -5.1%

Away win 10.0% 17.4% 5.75 -25.5%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.4% 1.44 -12.6%

Over 3.5 37.5% 48.5% 2.06 -22.8%

BTTS 47.1% 59.5% 1.68 -20.9%

Home O1.5 63.3% 75.8% 1.32 -16.4%

Away O1.5 13.5% 27.9% 3.58 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob47.1%

H 72% / xG 2.5-0.4 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.4%

#2 3–0 13.8%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 4–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tauras2.5

Kauno Žalgiris II0.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TAURAS · PPG 2.62

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.08 for Home, form 2.62 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tauras (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -2.6%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -5.1%

Kauno Žalgiris II (A) 10.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tauras face Kauno Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tauras a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Kauno Žalgiris II 10%, so Tauras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Tauras and 0.4 for Kauno Žalgiris II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tauras are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 0.50 for Kauno Žalgiris II. This match finished 4-2.

Tauras vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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