Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Babrungas vs Ekranas

Babrungas vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 15:00

Babrungas

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ekranas

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-11.4%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.9%1-13.9%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.7%2-15.4%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.3%3-15.0%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.0%4+-16.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.0% 72.5% 1.38 +2.1%

Draw 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

Away win 8.5% 14.3% 7.00 -24.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 54.3% 1.84 +8.7%

Over 3.5 37.4% 32.8% 3.05 +14.1%

BTTS 46.4% 47.6% 2.10 -2.6%

Home O1.5 63.9% 64.9% 1.54 -1.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob46.4%

H 74% / xG 2.8-0.3 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.7%

#2 3–0 16.3%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 4–0 11.3%

#5 5–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Babrungas2.8

Ekranas0.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.78

EKRANAS · PPG 0.12

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.45 for Home, form 2.78 vs 0.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Babrungas (H) 74.0%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.2%

Ekranas (A) 8.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Babrungas face Ekranas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Babrungas a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Ekranas 9%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Babrungas and 0.3 for Ekranas (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Babrungas are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 0.12 for Ekranas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.1%.

Babrungas vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - 1 Lyga Predictions