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Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:00

Atmosfera

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.6%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.5%1-18.4%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.4%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 76.9% 1.30 -19.4%

Draw 20.5% 20.8% 4.80 -1.0%

Away win 17.5% 14.3% 7.00 +13.5%

Over 2.5 62.3% 71.4% 1.40 -12.8%

Over 3.5 39.9% 49.5% 2.02 -19.4%

BTTS 55.4% 60.2% 1.66 -8.0%

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atmosfera2.3

Hegelmann II0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATMOSFERA · PPG 0.89

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atmosfera (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -19.4%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.0%

Hegelmann II (A) 17.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atmosfera face Hegelmann II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atmosfera a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Hegelmann II 18%, so Atmosfera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Atmosfera and 0.9 for Hegelmann II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atmosfera are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.88 for Hegelmann II.

Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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