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IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:00

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.8%0-24.5%0-33.6%0-4+3.7%1 1-02.8%1-16.7%1-27.9%1-36.3%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.5%3-13.5%3-24.1%3-33.3%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.3%4+-22.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 29.4% 3.40 +1.0%

Draw 21.0% 25.3% 3.95 -10.2%

Away win 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Over 2.5 72.6% 72.5% 1.38 +0.2%

Over 3.5 51.4% 50.0% 2.00 +2.8%

BTTS 69.5% 73.5% 1.36 -5.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 47.6% 2.10 +12.3%

Away O1.5 67.0% 66.7% 1.50 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.5%

A 49% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.9%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik1.8

Fylkir2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.29

FYLKIR · PPG 2.14

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 29.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +1.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.2%

Fylkir (A) 49.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Fylkir 49%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IR Reykjavik and 2.4 for Fylkir (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.14 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.7%.

IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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